Justice Markandeya Katju in one of his recent write-up indicated how the prevailing economic, social and political conditions in India resemble situations prevailing in the pre-revolution France. Hence, according to Katju a revolution is in making in India.

Certainly, there is a prevailing sense of anxiety and a sense of uncertainty about the political and economic developments in contemporary India haunting every sensible citizen. The economic conditions are worsening. Job market is collapsing. The institutional ethos and governance practices are crumbling on everyday basis. Above all people’s trust in various institutions to address their concerns is eroding.

Governability Crisis

I believe that there is a new political scenario in making. Indian political conditions are moving more in the direction of a governability crisis characterised by poor law and order situation, or anarchy in place of any form of a large-scale structural change, as predicted by Justice Katju. Two explanations can be given to explain this new political conditioning.

First are the worsening social conditions that can be seen as indicators of gradual destruction of existing social order. And second is the emerging political chaos that is destroying the constitutional-institutional order, along with an absence of alternative political ideas and organized political opposition.

The prevailing conditions are not only of the poor economy but also of the social crisis that is in making. The rising crime rates can be seen as indicative of this trend. The data available with the National Crime Records Bureau shows a rising trends in certain kind of crime rates.

For example, the number of violent crime reported in the year 2014 at all India level was 33,0754. It witnessed a jump of 30 % in a time span of three years. 42,6825 were reported in the year 2017 at the all India level.

Similarly, there is around 20 % rise in the total no of cases registered of kidnapping and abduction. In the year 2014, 77237 cases registered under this category. It has gone upto 95,893 cases by 2017. Crime against women, senior citizen, children and cyber crimes have witnessed a sudden rise in the last five years.

The crime against women recorded in 2014 were 33,7922 but went upto 35,9849 by 2017. The crimes against children recorded in 2014 were 89,423. This witnessed almost 30 % rise and went upto 129032 cases in 2017. Crimes against Senior citizens have also seen a rise with 20532 cases in 2015 to 22727 in 2017.

The biggest rise has been in the category of cyber crimes. In the year 2013 total number of cyber crimes recorded were 5693. This went almost five times higher and reached upto 21796 in 2017.

This data reveals that not only the crime rates are rising but also the nature of crime is undergoing a change. The emerging harsh economic conditions, lack of employment opportunities and above all gradual communalization and polarization of public spaces and inter-community relations can be seen as a root cause of increasing rates of crime.

Unlike the earlier trends when mega cities were the epicenter of the crime, now it is the small towns or emerging cities (like Hyderabad, Jodhpur, Lucknow etc) those are the epicenter of new crimes.

Mega cities are less likely to be affected from such scenario due to the strong presence of the state, technology and above all the market players. The focus of state policy is also on maintaining status quo in the mega cities as it also ensures safety and security of the state apparatus. The emerging crime scenario outside the mega cities or in the peripheries is resulting into a new governability crisis.

These kinds of conditions are likely to produce a social order that is of fear, terror, and insecurities. The political institutions those are expected to play the role of impartial actors with fair procedures in such times have already been delegitimized by the ruling dispensation.

The constitution makers or the leaders of the freedom struggle envisaged the federal structure for the preservation and promotion of not only of cultural diversities but also of political as well as economic diversities in various parts of India. This idea of federalism is under a serious threat due to the new governance framework of over centralization and homogenization.

There are efforts by the ruling party to destroy any form of opposition to its socio-political-cultural ideology.

Above all the constitutional normative structure consisting of values of equality, justice, tolerance, and democracy is being replaced with an accepted sense of inequality, hierarchies, a sense of caste and religious superiority, illiberalism and whataboutry. The ruling leaders of our time are celebrating inequalities in the name of prosperity. Policies like National Register for Citizens are the best examples of state policy of promoting mistrust. A cumulative impact of this is the emergence of a sense of political confusion in various political groups.

The rising levels of mistrust and emotional vacuum have gradually penetrated into public psychology. Rising cases of mob lynching and heinous crimes are a manifestation of such conditions. TV channels through their newsroom propaganda have further contributed to this kind of destruction. Under such situations people would see ‘others’ as a ‘threat to their existence.’

With the decline of institutions, lack of political alternative and state’s unwillingness to recognize that there is a public anguish, the present conditions are more likely to lead to what is referred in the classical Indian writings as arakjkta or what is referred in European context as a ‘Hobbesian state of anarchy.’

Zero probability of large-scale change

If one considers major structural changes as an outcome inferring from the prevailing socio-political conditions, there can be two probable scenarios. Firstly, a revolution, like France, as Justice Katju attempts to argue, can be the outcome. Secondly, there can be color revolutions like the Middle East or Eastern Europe.

In my opinion looking at the present Indian conditions any major structural change is least likely to happen. There are two major factors that would prevent any such change. First is the presence of a very strong foundation of electoral democracy. People have deep faith in the Indian electoral system irrespective of all its ills, and it seems that this would continue to be so. In one of the survey conducted by the students of Centre for Political Studies, a majority of respondents said that they believe that it’s their civic duty to participate in the elections and cast their vote. No political actor in India is in a position to disregard this strong political feeling.

Second factor that would minimize possibility of any radical change is the presence of the domestic as well as global market actors who have heavy stakes in the stability of the political as well as economic regime. These stakes are extremely high in the current regime given its policies favoring corporates even at the cost of people’s well being. The emerging global economic conditions also make it difficult for the market actors to risk anything at the cost of Indian market.

In any kind of examples of structural change be it the French case or Russian or East European cases, both these conditions (an electoral democracy and global market players) were absent at the advent of the revolution. Though the market players did exist but not as organized and globally connected as they are today, thanks to the technological innovations. The color revolutions, on the other hand, were aimed at demanding an electoral, liberal democracy. Such a political system exists in India despite a large number of problems in the electoral democracy. Besides, the history of communist rule or presence of an authoritarian leader played a major role in emergence of ‘revolutions’ in these countries. The prevailing Indian conditions as well as the historical conditions are qualitatively distinct. Hence, even this kind of scenario is less likely to occur.